立即打开

BBC: 机器人会抢走我们的饭碗吗?

Will robots cost us our jobs?

机器人会抢走我们的饭碗吗?

As new technology is introduced, there are many who worry about its impact on our current and future lifestyles - particularly when it comes to jobs. It is a current belief that with the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence, many people's jobs, and therefore their livelihoods, are likely to be lost to automation.

随着新技术的引入,很多人担心它会对我们现在和未来的生活方式产生影响——尤其是在工作方面。目前人们普遍认为,随着机器人和人工智能的崛起,许多人的工作,以及由此带来的生计,可能会被自动化所取代。

This type of fear isn't new. In the 19th century, the automated weaving machine was revolutionising the English textiles industry and would contribute to the Industrial Revolution. When manual workers became redundant, it sparked protests at the loss of their vocation.

这种恐惧由来已久。19世纪,自动织布机给英国纺织业带来了一场革命,并将为工业革命做出贡献。当体力劳动者被解雇时,他们对此提出了抗议。

Automation in the work place is nothing new. Machines have been performing menial tasks on our behalf for years, allowing us to escape the drudgery that accompanies many repetitive jobs. In fact, the International Federation of Robotics states that in manufacturing on average there are now 74 robots per 10,000 employees. That has risen from 66 in 2015.

工作场所的自动化并不是什么新鲜事。多年来,机器一直在为我们执行一些卑微的任务,这让我们得以摆脱许多重复性工作。事实上,国际机器人联合会表示,制造业平均每10000名员工中有74台机器人。这一数字在2015年还只是66个。

General Manager of Digital Customer Engagement Solutions at tech firm Nuance, Bernard Louvat, believes that 'AI is a big threat to low-skilled jobs, no question.' He also thinks that AI chatbots will oust most call centre staff within a decade. When you consider that a large telecoms company like AT&T employs around 100,000 call centre staff, that's a lot of people on the dole.

科技公司Nuance的数字客户参与解决方案总经理伯纳德·卢瓦特认为,“毫无疑问,人工智能对低技能工作是一个巨大的威胁。他还认为,人工智能聊天机器人将在10年内取代呼叫中心的大多数员工。像AT&T 这样的大型电信公司,其呼叫中心的员工数量达大约10万名。而当中很多人都要靠失业救济金生活。

And that's just one industry. A recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute, a private sector think tank, states that nearly two thirds of all jobs could have at least 30% of their activities automated by 2030.

这只是受影响的其中一个行业。私营部门智库麦肯锡全球研究所最近的一份报告指出,到2030年,近三分之二的工作岗位将至少有30%会实现自动化。

However, McKinsey also believes that this new technology will also 'create new occupations that do not exist today, much as technologies in the past have done.' As the horse gave way to the car, hostlers became mechanics and mechanised manufacturing drove up wages and created more long-term roles than it destroyed. In fact, figures from the World Bank have shown that despite a 2.2 billion rise in population between 1991 and 2017, global unemployment has fallen by 0.3%.

不过,麦肯锡也认为,这项新技术还将“创造出今天不存在的新职业,就像过去的技术一样。”“当马被汽车取代时,马夫变成了机械师,机械化的制造业推高了工资,产生了更深远的影响。”事实上,世界银行的数据显示,尽管1991年至2017年间人口增长了22亿,但全球失业率却下降了0.3%。

It's an evolution of work' says Ian Barkin, co-founder of Symphony Ventures, a robotic process automation specialist. As low-skilled jobs are taken on by AI, people will need to learn new skills. 'This calls on us to focus on up-skilling, Technology can lead to job reductions but it doesn't have to,' says Barkin.

机器人流程自动化专家Symphony Ventures的联合创始人伊恩·巴金说,这是工作的进化。随着低技能工作被人工智能取代,人们将需要学习新的技能。巴金说:“这要求我们集中精力提高技能,技术可能导致裁员,但这不是绝对的。”

Whether or not robotics and AI will leave us all jobless remains to be seen. Current views on the subject are mixed. Increased automation could indeed lead to a loss of some jobs, but at the same time is likely to create many more as new skills are required. Will they balance out? I'll get my AI assistant to get back to you on that one.

机器人和人工智能是否会让我们所有人失业还有待观察。目前对这个问题的看法有好有坏。自动化程度的提高确实会导致一些工作岗位的流失,但与此同时,随着对新技能的需求,可能会创造出更多的岗位。它们会平衡吗? 我会让我的人工智能助理给你答复。

 

词汇表

livelihood

生计

redundant

失业的,被裁员的

vocation

工作

menial

(工作)枯燥的、不体面的,带贬义

drudgery

苦工,辛苦乏味的工作

repetitive

单调重复的

employee

公司员工,雇员

low-skilled job

低技能工作

oust

赶走、夺取

staff

全体工作人员

on the dole

(英式表达)靠领取救济金生活

industry

行业、产业

occupation

职业

wage

(尤指给体力劳动者支付的)工钱、报酬

role

工作

take on

承担(一份工作)

up-skill

(通过培训)提升技能

jobless

失业的

打开APP阅读全文