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新型冠状病毒重挫国际旅游业 最快19个月才能恢复正常

Coronavirus Outbreak Could Harm Tourism Industry

冠状病毒爆发可能会重挫旅游业

Business experts had been expecting 2020 to be a good year for international tourism. They noted that trade tensions are easing, with economic conditions on the rise in some countries. In addition, events like the 2020 Summer Olympics are taking place in Japan later this year.

商业领域的专家本来一直预计2020年将是国际旅游的好年头。他们指出贸易紧张局势正在缓解,一些国家的经济状况开始提升。此外,2020年夏季奥运会等赛事将于今年晚些时候在日本举行。

But the spread of the new coronavirus in China has caused problems for the travel industry. The virus -- and efforts to contain it -- may lead to billions of dollars in losses for tourism and keep millions of would-be travelers at home.

但是新型冠状病毒在中国的传播给旅游业带来了麻烦。这种病毒以及遏制病毒所采取的措施可能会给旅游业造成数十亿美元的损失,并使数百万潜在游客困在家里。

Gabrielle Autry is an American living in China. She had planned to travel to Hong Kong soon to get engaged to her Chinese boyfriend. But those plans are now on hold. The two are now quarantined at their home in Hangzhou, an eight-hour drive from the center of the outbreak in Wuhan.

加布里埃尔·奥特里是一位在中国生活的美国人。她本计划尽快与中国男友前往香港订婚。但是这些计划目前都被搁置了。他们俩目前正在在杭州家里隔离,这里距离疫情爆发中心武汉市有8小时车程。

Autry does not know when she and her boyfriend will go to Hong Kong. She told The Associated Press (AP), "We are thankful for our health and that we are together here."

奥特里不知道她和男友什么时候会去香港。她对美联社表示:“万幸我们身体健康,并且都在这里。”

At least 30 airline companies have suspended service to China. Hotel rooms in China are largely empty.

至少有30家航空公司停飞了前往中国的航班。中国的酒店房间也大部分空置。

Before the outbreak, the United Nations World Tourism Organization was predicting growth of 3 to 4 percent in global tourism this year. Central to those numbers was the promise of an ever-growing number of travelers from China. In 2018, Chinese nationals made nearly 150 million trips overseas and spent $277 billion.

在疫情爆发前,联合国世界旅游组织预计今年全球旅游业将会增长3-4%。这些数字的核心部分是来自中国的游客人数有望不断增长。2018年,中国公民出境旅游近1.5亿人次,消费了2770亿美元。

The loss of those tourists is being felt most strongly in Asian countries. Thailand, for example, expects to lose $9.7 billion in income from Chinese travelers through June. That estimate comes from Thailand's tourism and sports minister.

亚洲国家对这些游客的流失感受最为强烈。以泰国为例,预计到今年6月,来自中国游客的收入将会损失97亿美元。该估值来自泰国文化体育观光部长。

Arisara Chamsue operates a store near the Grand Palace in Bangkok.

Arisara Chamsue在泰国大皇宫附近经营一家商店。

The day that we heard the news (about the virus), the tourists were gone, Arisara Chamsue told The AP. "I can only make a tenth or two tenths of what I normally make."

她对美联社表示:“在传出冠状病毒的新闻当天,游客就都消失了。我的收入只有往常的1/10,甚至1/20。”

Countries outside of East Asia are also feeling the loss of Chinese tourists. Australia just announced a travel ban on visitors from mainland China. China was the largest source for international visitors to Australia last year. Around 1.4 million Chinese tourists spent $13.4 billion in the country in 2019.

东亚以外的国家也会感受到中国游客的流失。澳大利亚刚刚宣布了对中国大陆游客的旅行禁令。去年,中国是澳大利亚最大的国际游客来源国。2019年,约有140万中国游客在该国消费了134亿美元。

Italy could lose $5 billion in tourism income this year, notes Demoskopika, a polling agency.

Demoskopika民意调查机构指出,意大利今年可能会损失50亿美元的旅游收入。

In the United States, Tourism Economics has predicted a 28-percent drop in Chinese visitors. That represents about $6 billion less spent on travel and airfare.

美国经济学家预计中国游客将会下降28%。这意味着在旅游和机票上的支出将会减少大约60亿美元。

The tourism industry will recover from the losses, as it has from health fears in other years. However, observers are divided about the amount of time that recovery will take.

跟往年存在健康担忧的年份一样,旅游业终将会从损失中恢复过来。但是,观察人士对旅游恢复所需要的时间意见不一。

The World Travel and Tourism Council says it usually takes 19 months for visitor numbers to recover after a virus outbreak. And Tourism Economics expects it will be four years before Chinese tourism to the United States returns to previously expected levels.

世界旅游理事会表示,疫情之后通常需要19个月时间,游客人数才能恢复。而旅游经济学预计,中国赴美旅游将需要4年时间才能回到之前预计的水平。

I'm Bryan Lynn.

布莱恩·琳恩为你播报。

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